Coronavirus in Australia should be contained

My inexpert guess is that Coronavirus infections will be contained within the next 6 months.

The basis is the following:

  • Australia is a sparsely populated country. It is one of the least densely populated countries. Therefore people coming close enough to each other to be infected is less likely.
  • Australia is an island and can more easily control its borders.
  • Australia has a strong health system to support virus testing and remediation of the infected.
  • Australians are well informed of hygiene, and infection mitigation.
  • The virus does not cope well in the hotter temperatures in Australia.

The risk

The ongoing risk is mass infection triggered by a single event, example as follows:

An infected individual attends a mass event. The infected individual comes into enough sustained contact to infect a large number of people. The whereabouts of this large number of infected people are untraceable after the event.

If this single event occurs, then all bets are off and contagion will be much more widespread.

The consequences

The most likely consequence for most of the public in Australia will not be health-related. The effects will be damage to the economy due to loss of confidence; disruption in international trade; less international tourists due to restrictions; and a shortage of some goods.

Personal opinion only. The infection rates of the coronavirus are impossible to predict accurately and most affected by the public’s actions.